Introduction
The global steel industry is undergoing a significant recalibration in 2025. From Canada’s tariff relief changes and the looming threat of green-steel transition failures in Europe to India’s own metallurgical coke shortages, multiple developments are converging that will affect steel prices, availability and sourcing strategies worldwide. For Indian construction and infrastructure stakeholders — especially those working with TMT bars (grades like Fe 500, Fe 550, Fe 500D, Fe 550D) — these shifts are not abstract: they directly touch cost, risk and supplier reliability.
In this post we will explore:
The major global news items reshaping the steel industry now
How these changes ripple into India’s market, especially TMT bars and construction-steel chains
What contractors, buyers and specifiers must do to stay ahead of supply & price shocks
Strategic take-aways for the remainder of 2025
1. Key Global Developments in Steel
1.1 Canada’s Tariff Relief on Some Steel/Aluminium Imports
Canada recently announced targeted tariff relief, exempting certain steel and aluminum products from prior surcharges applied to the U.S. and China. Reuters
Why this matters:
It signals that even countries heavily engaged in steel trade are adjusting policies mid-year, which may affect global trade flows for semi-finished and finished steel.
For Indian steel exporters (and Indian buyers of international steel), this indicates increased complexity in trade regimes and potential cost/lead-time changes.
Downstream construction steel markets must monitor whether such reliefs lead to influxes of cheaper imports, which could push domestic producers to increase output or reduce prices.
1.2 Europe’s Green Steel Startup Crisis (Sweden’s Stegra)
Sweden’s green-steel startup, previously hailed as a flagship of the transition to low-carbon steel, is facing a financial crisis and may be unable to meet its commitments. Financial Times
Why this matters:
The aspiration for “green steel” is central to many infrastructure programmes worldwide, including in India. If major green-steel projects falter, reliability and pricing of green-rated steel may come under stress.
For buyers specifying higher-grade or green-certified structural steel (including TMT bars made via greener processes), the risk of supply disruption increases.
It also raises caution around premium pricing for “eco-steel” — the risk-premium may not always be justified if capacity fails.
1.3 Metallurgical Coke Shortages in India
In a direct domestic development with global implications, Indian steel mills faced a major shortage of metallurgical coke in H1 2025, receiving only ~1.5 million tonnes out of ~3.09 million tonnes required.
Why this matters:
This affects India’s ability to increase or even sustain finished-steel production, including long products like TMT bars.
Reduced supply or increased input cost (if mills have to import expensive coke) may translate into higher domestic steel prices, or scarcity of certain grades/sizes.
For construction buyers, this adds a layer of regional supply-risk even before export/trade risk is considered.
1.4 Global Demand Trends – Flat or Sluggish Growth
The World Steel Association’s Short Range Outlook (Oct 2025) forecasts global steel demand growth of just ~1.3% in 2026 (following flat 2025) with a projected 3.4% growth outside China in 2025. worldsteel.org
Why this matters:
Oversupply and weak demand in mature markets mean that global prices may remain under pressure, affecting export flows.
For India’s domestic market (which is growing ~9% in 2025 – 2026) this divergence means global oversupply may redirect into Indian markets, affecting pricing, or increase competition for iron-ore/coke/ inputs.
1.5 India’s Domestic Demand Surge
India’s steel demand is projected to grow by ~9% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by infrastructure, housing and industrial sectors.
Why this matters:
While globally growth is sluggish, India stands out as a growth market. For TMT bar producers and buyers, this means domestic supply chains must gear up.
It also means that Indian buyers (contractors, fabricators) cannot rely on cheap global imports or falling prices to mitigate cost rises — domestic demand may push up prices.
1.6 Persistent Global Oversupply Risk
Reports foresee global steel-making capacity expanding by up to 6.7% from 2025-2027, while demand growth remains weak, especially in developed markets.
Why this matters:
Oversupply risk can lead to dumping or cut-throat pricing, but also to sudden export bans, quotas or tariffs which can disrupt supply chains.
For buyers of TMT bars, even indirect effects (input shortages, export flows shifting) can impact pricing and availability.
2. What These Global Trends Mean for India’s TMT Bar and Construction Steel Segment
2.1 Cost Pressures & Procurement Risk
Given both input constraints (met-coke, iron ore) and global policy/tariff shift risk, procurement costs for TMT bars (Fe 500, Fe 550, Fe 500D/Fe 550D) could increase unpredictably. Builders and contractors should plan for volatility rather than smooth pricing.
2.2 Sizing & Grade Implications
With India pushing for domestic manufacturing and higher-spec infrastructure steel (Fe 500D/550D) due to higher demand and seismic zones, global disruptions may increase lead-times or force grade substitutions. Ensure your supplier is aligned with both domestic policy and global risk.
2.3 Supplier & Import Risk
Imported semi-finished steel or reinforcement may face increased tariffs or quotas, meaning reliance on foreign suppliers is less safe.
Domestic mills are under pressure (input shortages, cost inflation) which could affect availability of certain grade/size TMT.
2.4 Opportunity for Domestic Suppliers
For Indian TMT bar manufacturers who are well-integrated, certified, and locally oriented, this global disruption is an opportunity to increase market share. For buyers, partnering with trusted domestic brands (e.g., your own brand) offers insurance.
2.5 Strategic Sourcing becomes critical
It’s now more than “lowest price” — you must factor in: delivery guarantees, grade certification, supplier financial resilience, buffer stock, alternate sourcing. Global instability heightens the cost of a sourcing mistake.
Procurement Guide: TMT quantity calculator guide
3. Strategic Action Points for Contractors, Builders & Steel Buyers
Action Point 1 — Lock in contracts early
Negotiate fixed/partially fixed prices, clearly defined delivery windows, and quality/spec compliance. Having forward contracts even for a portion of your requirement protects you from late-year cost spikes.
Action Point 2 — Select reliable suppliers who can weather disruption
Check: certifications (BIS/ISI), production capacity, input sourcing, financial track record. Domestic suppliers with integrated supply chains will be more resilient.
Action Point 3 — Diversify risk & backlog buffer
Use multiple suppliers (if possible) or larger buffer stock. Against festival seasons or national infrastructure pushes, supply chains tighten.
Action Point 4 — Monitor global indicators
Keep track of: tariff announcements (Canada, U.S., India), raw-material bottlenecks (met-coke), green-steel startup risks, global demand vs capacity stats. Being early gives you a pricing edge.
Action Point 5 — Educate clients and stakeholders
Explain to project stakeholders that cost moves are not just domestic—they are influenced by global trade and supply factors. Position yourself as a strategic buyer rather than a reactive one.
Frequently Asked Questions — Global Steel News & TMT Bar Impact (2025)
4. Regional Focus: India & TMT Bar Procurement in 2025
India’s Demand Growth
As noted earlier, India’s 9% demand growth for steel in 2025 – 26 places it at the centre of the global steel story. This growth is powered by housing, roads, metro, ports and rising manufacturing. For TMT bars (used in concrete reinforcement), this means demand is broad-based across residential, commercial and infrastructure segments.
Domestic Supplier Advantage
Domestic policy measures (e.g., DMI&SP policy) prioritise locally manufactured iron & steel in public procurement. Suppliers who align with these norms will win tenders. Buyers, therefore, benefit by dealing with such compliant suppliers.
Input Constraints
The metallurgical coke shortage mentioned above is a direct threat to production for many mills. Buyers should ask suppliers about their input sourcing – mills that are importing or have strong captive supply may better weather shortages.
Impact on TMT Bar Grades
With infrastructure projects requiring high-ductility grades (Fe 500D/Fe 550D) and residential/commercial continuing to use Fe 500/Fe 550, any supply stress may cause:
Differential pricing (premium grades rise faster)
Stock shortages of ideal sizes/grades
Buyers may need to consider alternate grades or adjust project specs in consultation with structural engineers.
5. News-Analysis Case Study: How Global Trade Ties Play Out in Steel
Let’s take one real example: Canada’s recent tariff relief on some steel/ aluminium imports. While it may appear regional, the ripple effect is global.
By exempting certain steel products, Canada potentially increases import flows from China and the U.S., altering global trade balances.
That in turn may affect China’s export strategies — resulting in either dumping pressure on other markets or shifting to new regions (including India).
For India’s steel market (and TMT bar buyers) it means two things: either cheaper imports domestically or increased export pressure on Indian mills seeking alternative markets — both scenarios involve cost and availability risk.
For contractors, that means even though your project is local, global trade shifts matter.
Further Reading:- TMT Bar Price Trends 2025
6. Forecasts & What to Prepare For (2025)
Expect steel/ TMT bar price volatility rather than fixed decline/increase. With input cost rises, demand growth in India and global oversupply, pricing may oscillate.
Expect premium for high-ductility grades as infrastructure projects surge and supply tightens.
Expect green steel premiums to remain for now, but risk of discounting if green-steel startups fail (see Swedish case).
Expect delivery lead-times increasing during festivals, monsoons and large infrastructure pushes.
Expect domestic policy to tighten further — more procurement favouring “Made in India” grades and stricter certifications.
Conclusion
The global steel industry is far from static. Trade policy changes in Canada, shortages of critical inputs in India, and faltering green-steel ventures in Europe all matter. For Indian buyers — especially those procuring TMT bars for construction, infrastructure or housing — the message is clear: you’re operating in a globally connected market, even if your project is local.
By adopting strategic sourcing, locking in early, working with trusted suppliers, and paying attention to global signals, you give yourself a competitive edge. In the end, when the structure goes up, what you’ll have bought matters far more than just the lowest price.
References / Further Reading
Global metals/steel industry trends 2025/2026. Atradius
Steel price analysis – current market dynamics. Steel Industry News
Canada offers tariff relief on steel/aluminum. Reuters
Sweden green-steel startup crisis. Financial Times
India safeguard tariffs on steel imports. Reuters
